Plant Soil Environ., 2007, 53(10):421-429 | DOI: 10.17221/2200-PSE

A neural network model for prediction of deoxynivalenol content in wheat grain based on weather data and preceding crop

K. Klem1, M. Váňová1, J. Hajšlová2, K. Lancová2, M. Sehnalová2
1 Agrotest fyto, Ltd., Kroměříž, Czech Republic
2 Institute of Chemical Technology, Prague, Czech Republic

Deoxynivalenol (DON) is the most prevalent Fusarium toxin in Czech wheat samples and therefore forecasting this mycotoxin is a potentially useful tool to prevent it from entering into food chain. The data about DON content in wheat grain, weather conditions during the growing season and cultivation practices from two field experiments conducted in 2002-2005 were used for the development of neural network model designed for DON content prediction. The winning neural network is based on five input variables: a categorial variable - preceding crop, and continuous variables - average April temperature, sum of April precipitation, average temperature 5 days prior to anthesis, sum of precipitation 5 days prior to anthesis. The most important input parameters are the preceding crop and sum of precipitation 5 days prior to anthesis. The weather conditions in April, which are important for inoculum formation on crop debris are also of important contribution to the model. The weather conditions during May and 5 days after anthesis play only an insignificant role for the DON content in grain. The effect of soil cultivation was found inferior for model function as well. The correlation between observed and predicted data using the neural network model reached the coefficient R2 = 0.87.

Keywords: Fusarium head blight; mycotoxins; forecast; crop rotation; soil cultivation; temperature; rainfall; epidemiology

Published: October 31, 2007  Show citation

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago Chicago Notes IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Klem K, Váňová M, Hajšlová J, Lancová K, Sehnalová M. A neural network model for prediction of deoxynivalenol content in wheat grain based on weather data and preceding crop. Plant Soil Environ. 2007;53(10):421-429. doi: 10.17221/2200-PSE.
Share...
Download citation
  • BibTeX (.bib)
  • Bookends (.ris)
  • EasyBib (.ris)
  • EndNote (.enw)
  • EndNote 8 (.xml)
  • ISI WoS (.isi)
  • Medlars (.medlars)
  • Mendeley (.ris)
  • MODS (.xml)
  • Papers (.ris)
  • RefWorks (.txt)
  • RefManager (.ris)
  • RIS (.ris)
  • MS Word (.xml)
  • Zotero (.ris)
    • Open full article

    References

    1. Abramson D., Clear R.M., Smith D.M. (1993): Trichothecene production by Fusarium spp. isolated from Manitoba grain. Can. J. Plant Pathol., 15: 147-152. Go to original source...
    2. Andries C., Jarosz A., Trail F. (2000): Effect of rainfall and temperature on production of perithecia by Gibberella zeae in field debris in Michigan. In: National Fusarium Head Blight Forum, Erlanger, KY. Available at: www.scabusa.org/pdfs/forum_00_proc_edm.pdf
    3. Bai G.H., Shaner G. (1991): Effect of moist period on response of wheat cultivars to infection by Fusarium graminearum. Phytopathology, 81: 1145.
    4. Brennan J.M., Egan D., Cooke B.M., Doohan F.M. (2005): Effect of temperature on head blight of wheat caused by Fusarium culmorum and F. graminearum. Plant Pathol., 54: 156-160. Go to original source...
    5. Chakraborty S., Ghosh R., Ghosh M., Fernandes C.D., Charchar M.J., Kelemu S. (2004): Weather-based prediction of anthracnose severity using artificial neural network models. Plant Pathol., 53: 375-386. Go to original source...
    6. De Wolf E.D., Francl L.J. (1997): Neural networks that distinguish infection periods in an outdoor environment. Phytopathology, 87: 83-87. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    7. De Wolf E.D., Lipps P.E, Miller D., Knight P., Molineros J., Francl L.J., Madden L.V. (2004): Evaluation of prediction models for wheat Fusarium head blight in the U.S. In: Proc. 2 nd Int. Symp. Fusarium Head Blight, Orlando, FL.
    8. De Wolf E.D., Madden L.V., Lipps P.E. (2000): Prediction of Fusarium head blight epidemics. In: National Fusarium Head Blight Forum, Erlanger, KY. Available at: www.scabusa.org/pdfs/forum_00_proc_edm.pdf
    9. De Wolf E.D., Madden L.V., Lipps P.E. (2003): Risk assessment models for wheat Fusarium head blight epidemics based on within-season weather data. Phytopathology, 93: 428-435. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    10. Dill-Macky R., Jones R.K. (2000): The effect of previous crop residues and tillage on Fusarium head blight of wheat. Plant Dis., 84: 71-76. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    11. European Commission (2005): Commission Regulation (EC) No 856/2005. Official J. EU, L 143/1-26.
    12. Fernandez M.R., Stolhandske-Dale S., Zentner R.P., Pearse P. (2001): Progress in management of Fusarium head blight in Saskatchewan. In: 2 nd Canadian Workshop on Fusarium Head Blight, Ottawa. Available at: res2.agr.gc.ca/ecorc/fusarium01/cont_e.htm
    13. Fernando W.G.D., Paulitz T.C., Seaman W.L., Dutilleul P., Miller J.D. (1997): Head blight gradients caused by Gibberella zeae from area sources of inoculum in wheat field plots. Phytopathology, 87: 414-421. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    14. Gilbert J., Fernando W.G.D. (2004): Epidemiology and biological control of Gibberella zeae/Fusarium graminearum. Can. J. Plant Pathol., 26: 464-472. Go to original source...
    15. Hooker D.C., Schaafsma A.W., Tamburic-Ilincic L. (2002): Using weather variables pre- and post-heading to predict deoxynivalenol content in winter wheat. Plant Dis., 86: 611-619. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    16. Khonga E.B., Sutton J.C. (1988): Inoculum production and survival of Gibberella zeae in maize and wheat residues. Can. J. Plant Pathol., 10: 232-239. Go to original source...
    17. Koch H.J., Pringas C., Maerlaender B. (2006): Evaluation of environmental and management effects on Fusarium head blight infection and deoxynivalenol concentration in the grain of winter wheat. Eur. J. Agron., 24: 357-366. Go to original source...
    18. Krebs H., Dubois D., Külling C., Forrer H.R., Streit B., Richner W. (2000): Effects of preceding crop and tillage on the incidence of Fusarium spp. and mycotoxin deoxynivalenol content in winter wheat grain. Agrarforschung, 7: 264-268.
    19. McMullen M., Jones R., Gallenberg D. (1997): Scab of wheat and barley: A re-emerging disease of devastating impact. Plant Dis., 81: 1340-1348. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    20. Moschini R.C., Fortugno C. (1996): Predicting wheat head blight incidence using models based on meteorological factors in Pergamino, Argentina. Eur. J. Plant Pathol., 102: 211-218. Go to original source...
    21. Obst A., Lepschy-von Gleissenthal J., Beck R. (1997): On the etiology of Fusarium head blight of wheat in south Germany - preceding crops, weather conditions for inoculum production and head infection, proneness of the crop to infection and mycotoxin production. Cereal Res. Commun., 25: 699-703. Go to original source...
    22. Parry D.W., Jenkinson P., McLeod L. (1995): Fusarium ear blight (scab) in small grain cereals - A review. Plant Pathol., 44: 207-238. Go to original source...
    23. Paulitz T.C. (1996): Diurnal release of ascospores by Gibberella zeae in inoculated wheat plots. Plant Dis., 80: 674-678. Go to original source...
    24. Pereyra S.A., Dill-Macky R., Sims A.L. (2004): Survival and inoculum production of Gibberella zeae in wheat residue. Plant Dis., 88: 724-730. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    25. Radová Z., Holadová K., Hajšlová J. (1998): Comparison of two clean-up principles for determination of trichothecenes in grain extract. J. Chromatogr. A, 829: 259-267. Go to original source...
    26. Rossi V., Languasco L., Pattori E., Giosue S. (2002): Dynamics of airborne Fusarium macroconidia in wheat fields naturally affected by head blight. J. Plant Pathol., 84: 53-64.
    27. Schaafsma A.W., Hooker D.C., Miller J.D. (2005): Progress and limitations with respect to pre-harvest forecasting of Fusarium toxins in grains. Phytopathology, 95: S123.
    28. Sung J.M., Cook R.J. (1981): Effect of water potential on reproduction and spore germination by Fusarium roseum 'Graminearum', 'Culmorum', and 'Avenaceum'. Phytopathology, 71: 499-504. Go to original source...
    29. Sutton J.C. (1982): Epidemiology of wheat head blight and maize ear rot caused by Fusarium graminearum. Can. J. Plant Pathol., 4: 195-209. Go to original source...
    30. Suty A., Mauler-Machnik A. (1996): Fusarium head blight on wheat - New findings on the epidemiology and control of Gibberella zeae the teleomorph of Fusarium graminearum with Folicur. Pfl.-Nachricht. Bayer, 49: 55-70. Go to original source...
    31. Yang X.B., Batchelor W.D., Tschanz A.T. (1995): A neural network model to predict soybean rust. Phytopathology, 85: 1172.

    This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY NC 4.0), which permits non-comercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.


    Return to the content